| The Immigration
and Naturalization Service (INS) recently reported that as of May
23, 2001, it has approved approximately 117,000 new H-1B petitions
out of 195,000 allocated for fiscal year 2001. The fiscal year ends
September 30, 2001. The INS also reported that there are an estimated
40,000 petitions awaiting adjudication at the four Service Centers.
However, it is unknown how many of these 40,000 petitions will count
against the H-1B cap. We presume that many of the 40,000 pending petitions
are for H-1B employees already in the United States. Such petitions
do not utilize a cap number. Likewise, new H-1B petitions for certain
types of employers-including universities and affiliated nonprofit
organizations, as well as nonprofit and governmental research organizations-are
exempt from the H-1B cap. Additionally, any denied or withdrawn petition
should not be counted against the cap.
The INS has not announced whether it anticipates that the cap will
be reached in FY2001. However, our analysis of the limited data
suggests that the INS averaged approving approximately 3,500 cap-subject
H-1B petitions per week. Of course, the rate of INS adjudications
fluctuates widely from week to week and from month to month. However,
at this rate, less than the 195,000 allotted H-1Bs will be used
this fiscal year. Moreover, many insiders speculate that the downturn
in the economy will result in even fewer new H-1B cases, even though
H-to-H "transfer" cases not subject to the cap may be increasing.
Should an increase in present utilization rates result in the cap
being reached, it is unlikely that this event would occur before
late August or September, in which case, the impact will be small.
The fiscal cap year ends on September 30, and a new allocation of
195,000 visa numbers will be issued beginning October 1. Average
processing backlogs at most INS service centers exceeds six weeks
from filing, so that reaching the cap close to the end of the fiscal
year will not have a large impact.
In the upcoming months, we expect to receive further updates from
the INS. When we do, we will be able to refine our analysis. We
will keep you apprised of any significant developments.
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